One of Ireland's most prominent young economists, believes there are good prospects for recovery in the Irish property market.

Based on his premise that natural cycles underpin all commercial and residential property markets, Dr. John McCartney has analyzed how these past market cycles provide the clearest foresight into what is likely to happen in the Irish property market over the next decade.

Speaking earlier this month, Mr McCartney presented all his insightful findings in an event organised by B2B Communications, where he spoke to a select group of prominent business leaders in Waterford

"Research on property markets across the world shows that they work in cycles. By definition, that means that Ireland will ultimately come out of this property led slump," he said.

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"However, due to the severe economy recession, the recovery will be slow," he continued.

However, he said that Ireland's property market's recovery is not imminent: "The housing market should stabilise in 2011, but no meaningful recovery is likely before 2014.

"As regards commercial property, a recovery is likely from around 2014, with the market building to its next peak in 2019," he explained.

Last year, McCartney broke new ground by publishing in the ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary.

It was the first ever analysis of what 'drives' commercial building in Ireland. Currently, he continues to undertake urgently needed research into the commercial property market, and has developed forecasting models for rental growth and construction output, for example.

After the Waterford event, Jonathan Earl of B2B Communications said they were delighted with the "engaging, informative and intuitive presentation" and pointed out that Mr McCartney's talk had generated great debate within the audience.

"There is a lot of speculation about the economy, its chances of recovery and the economic challenges we all face.

"Although Dr. McCartney focused primarily on the property market, it outlined a reasonable timeframe within which we can expect a return to normality," explained Earl.

(CL/BMcC)