Based on an analysis of 320,000 live mortgage accounts HML predicts 33,257 houses (0.3% of all mortgaged properties) will be repossessed across the UK during 2011.
Northern Ireland is expected to experience the worst rate of repossessions in the UK (0.83% - 2,540), with repossession rates significantly higher than other regions. This reflects the 10.2 per cent fall in house prices that have occurred in the region in the last year combined with the region’s links to the troubled Republic of Ireland economy.
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On the UK mainland, repossession rates are likely to be above average in Wales (0.37% - 1,914), London (0.34% - 4,159), the West Midlands (0.33% - 3,406) and the North East (0.33% - 1,557)
The South West (0.18% - 1,829) is forecast to see the lowest proportion of repossessions in the UK, by a considerable margin.
HML chief commercial and finance officer Neil Warman said: “Despite the challenging economic environment, the downward trend in repossessions we saw last year is set to continue for the first half of this year. However repossessions will then begin to rise during the second half as a number of macroeconomic factors start to impact on homeowners and influence lender behaviour.
“Of particular concern this year will be the impact of rising inflation and interest rates on hard-pressed homeowners and the effect of continuing job losses. However, these are unlikely to feed through into increased repossessions during the early part of this year.
“Looking at 2012 we see increased affordability pressures for borrowers who are in work together with the lagged effect of job losses in the public sector and benefit cuts. We forecast this will lead to a slight increase in repossessions during the year to a total of between 35,000 and 40,000.”
(GK)
