Following yesterday’s NCB Stockbrokers’ report on falling house registrations in Ireland, a leading analyst has warned 2009 could be just as bleak for the industry.

Just 1,600 new dwellings were registered in April under the Homebond scheme.

The figures are used as an approximate guide to the number of units being started.

Although last month was an improvement on March, it was still 45% less than the number registered in the same month last year.

For the first four months of the year, registrations are down 62% on last year and 72% lower than the peak year of 2006.

NCB Stockbrokers analyst John Sheehan, speaking to The Irish Independent, said many of the houses being registered now would not be completed until next year, and the 2009 outlook was currently looking weak.

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"April was another weak month, as builders scale back development plans in response to an environment where buyers continues to defer purchases in the hope of securing lower prices," he said.

Industry experts expect around 40,000 units are to be completed this year. The fall of around 35,000 units will knock more than four percentage points off growth this year, Ulster Bank estimated recently.

Many within the industry had been hoping for some recovery in 2009. The current situation would mean even an increase of 50,000 units would add one percentage point to growth in 2009.

But Mr Sheehan said it could be difficult to reach even 40,000, unless the number of registrations increases in the coming months.

"They are extremely weak and would need to improve pretty soon if we are to have a reasonable expectation of even matching this year's total," he said. Any further fall would further reduce growth in 2009, which most estimates already put at 2%.

"Part of the problem is that there is a lag between a builder actually registering with Homebond and actually starting work on the site, so time is getting short," Mr Sheehan said.

Last month’s figures show that Dublin accounted for 23% of the total registrations in April, which was well below its share of anticipated demand.

Cork accounted for 13%, Galway for 7% and Wicklow for 6.5%.

Kildare and Meath shared only 5% of new registrations.

See: April's 45% Drop In Irish Housing Registration

(PR)