The body representing Irish builders has signalled a downturn in expected housing completions for 2009, the first time this year the organisation has amended figures.

The Construction Industry Federation (CIF) has reduced output forecasts, for the 12 months ending in 2009, by around 19%.

This could mean a mere 30,000 houses would be built during next year.

The CIF has also hinted the domestic economy could feel the impact, of the downturn in volumes, by as much as 1.5%.

Although figures have predicted the industry is on target to produce 45,000 completions, by the end of this year, as suggested by the CIP, 2009 could see 7,000 homes wiped off projected completions.

The wider knock-on effect is calculated through the assumption that 10,000 housing completions are equal to 1% of the economy.

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CIF Director Hubert Fitzpatrick said: "We are seeing a downward trend and, based on existing data, the figure for 2009 could be as low as 30,000,

"We are going through a blip at the moment and when confidence is back we would be able to sustain 55,000 units annually."

Ireland has the lowest housing stock levels per 1,000 people than any other place in Europe, according to Mr Fitzpatrick

However, a leading stockbroker has said the CIF's projections for 2009 may prove prudent.

Davy Stockbrokers Economist Rossa White: "If we get to our (Davy) target of 25,000 for 2009 it will be a good result,

"If this trend continues it will be lower again in 2010."

Mr White said recent trends suggested a run rate of 10,000 a year down the line.

"This points to an acceleration in the rate of contraction in registrations," according to John Sheehan of NCB Stockbrokers.

"Year-to-date July 2008 data is now 78% on the same period in 2006," he added.

The CIF's predictions came as housing registrar Homebond announced a 84% fall in the number of new housing registrations last month, year on year.

Homebond represents roughly 75% of total registrations.

Total figures for June, encompassing statistics from Homebond and Premier Guarantee (who represents 25% of registrations) had illustrated a 64% drop compared to 2007.

(PR/JM)